MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x820f2597f2efd450a4617f0c543260a083c6c063b2028651177ac57e29292919
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 7,438$3,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,661.92 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 6,883$3,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,475.45 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 59c | 2,143$1,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,266.51 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 41c | 1,932$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,139.75 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 54c | 1,918$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.79 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf3…aa3abacked Under | 57c | 1,758$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002 | 104 | 46.2%48 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 71c | 910$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.55 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 63c | 898.56$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.78 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 73c | 788.74$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.37 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 45c | 557.77$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.66 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 37c | 526.31$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.73 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Under | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 46c | 440.65$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.19 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 37c | 358.16$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.52 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 63c | 253.2$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.43 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Under | 37c | 243.24$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 71c | 224$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.96 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 33c | 215.38$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.38 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Over | 62c | 210$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 290 | 43.1%125 W · 165 L | -12.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Under | 53c | 169.81$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Under | 19c | 164.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 416 | 37.5%156 W · 260 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Over | 35c | 150$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.8 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Under | 37c | 138.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 37c | 137.41$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Under | 19c | 130.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 246 | 46.7%115 W · 131 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 48c | 129.41$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.83 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Under | 36c | 120.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d9…9e0ebacked Under | 65c | 120$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 19c | 115.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 60c | 112$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 37c | 105$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 39c | 105$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 66c | 84.4$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 60c | 82.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 36c | 79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 45c | 74.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 582 | 54.3%316 W · 266 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…d825backed Over | 48c | 74.44$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Over | 50c | 70.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 17c | 59.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 65c | 57.08$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 37c | 46.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 1,040 | 51.8%539 W · 501 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Over | 54c | 38.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 46c | 34.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Under | 37c | 34.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Over | 52c | 33.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 475 | 52.4%249 W · 226 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Over | 48c | 28.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 40c | 27.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 47c | 25.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 62c | 20.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Over | 58c | 20.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4436…cf98backed Over | 60c | 19.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -37%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 75c | 17.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 4.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit TigersCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 2.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 3.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.