MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22b8c1508f32a2bf1ca06f5a1961025cc1a9bd72803ca8e14b246d25f904156f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9770…0ff5backed Under | 51c | 6,523$3,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,211.74 | 119 | 52.9%63 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 5,561$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700.26 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 52c | 2,222$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.55 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 50c | 2,000$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 48c | 1,577$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.85 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 51c | 1,200$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 70c | 1,089$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.25 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Over | 30c | 1,055$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Under | 53c | 860$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.2 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 49c | 836$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.36 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 50c | 819.28$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.64 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 50c | 819.28$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.64 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Over | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe74a…f1bfbacked Under | 50c | 787$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.5 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 50c | 782$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 49c | 714$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.86 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 51c | 680$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.2 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under | 52c | 652.35$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.13 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Over | 48c | 623.05$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.06 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Under | 52c | 608.29$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.98 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…1816backed Over | 48c | 591.67$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 18c | 571.17$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 50c | 498.56$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.28 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d14…ff3ebacked Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 385.09$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Under | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 48c | 301.88$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.9 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 79c | 277$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.17 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 49c | 271.32$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.29 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 47c | 198.87$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.47 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 249 | 50.6%126 W · 123 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 52c | 104.17$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…ce30backed Under | 47c | 83.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +35%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa20d…eadebacked Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 68.61$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fff…5495backed Over | 51c | 58.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +7.3wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 35c | 56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 49c | 44.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 48c | 38.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…2b55backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 234 | 55.1%129 W · 105 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Over | 47c | 28.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 65c | 22.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 46c | 22.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit TigersCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 2.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 3.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.