MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1521e7ff795c43162ef3775f6903310366394ca40ead4d2ed036bf2dfa863b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,723
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,723 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 774.23$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.01 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 22c | 508.84$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.27 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 26c | 196.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.93 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 79c | 62.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 23c | 61.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 25c | 59.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570a…fe3ebacked Under | 73c | 31.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb19a…1b94backed Under | 73c | 29.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc4…c09dbacked Under | 73c | 28.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79f…a6abbacked Under | 73c | 27.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ca…40adbacked Under | 73c | 27.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…6e15backed Under | 73c | 26.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d69…cbc8backed Under | 73c | 24.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…5010backed Under | 73c | 23.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0d…1f81backed Under | 73c | 23.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61a8…8539backed Under | 73c | 23.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x440b…7551backed Under | 73c | 22.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcc…806ebacked Under | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e37…ac4abacked Under | 73c | 21.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…061cbacked Under | 73c | 21.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x563d…94cabacked Under | 73c | 21.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f7…5ae3backed Under | 73c | 21.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…f13abacked Under | 73c | 21.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8c…7a0cbacked Under | 73c | 21.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4324…174bbacked Under | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…cacfbacked Under | 73c | 20.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc859…b72cbacked Under | 73c | 20.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd10d…2642backed Under | 73c | 20.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e9…b5fdbacked Under | 73c | 19.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x744a…8045backed Under | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.