MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fab428d75cdffa0d5ffc32fe660110d09445143290a8e407143ac917674a458
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 48c | 5,077$2,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,655.28 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 47c | 4,269$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,269.46 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 52c | 2,910$1,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,512.98 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Over | 49c | 2,226$1,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.55 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 1,852$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.78 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b94…b660backed Over | 53c | 1,014$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.58 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39e9…e2dfbacked Over | 53c | 800$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424 | 72 | 59.7%43 W · 29 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 53c | 779.77$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.15 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 53c | 777.24$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.03 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Over | 53c | 702.44$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.29 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 53c | 639.07$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.71 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 53c | 617.93$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.43 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 53c | 526$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.78 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 54c | 420$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.8 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 47c | 320$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.6 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 53c | 304.7$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.97 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 53c | 296.03$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.7 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 47c | 260.9$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.85 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 60c | 225.58$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.58 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 47c | 215$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.95 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 53c | 192.45$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 37c | 138.45$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.28 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 66c | 132$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 38c | 129.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.08 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 13c | 96.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 53c | 87.05$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 48c | 68.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Under | 47c | 56.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 54c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Under | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 55c | 54.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 44c | 43.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…30febacked Under | 48c | 32.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 41c | 30.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a7…4d52backed Over | 55c | 30.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 68cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 39c | 30.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x392f…4d67backed Over | 55c | 29.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Over | 54c | 29.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91d…8b41backed Over | 55c | 27.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…3bfbbacked Over | 55c | 27.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 67cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0a…bc66backed Over | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba2…db1fbacked Over | 55c | 24.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…2de1backed Under | 47c | 24.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0381…f76cbacked Over | 55c | 23.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c9…cbb1backed Over | 55c | 22.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b68…bfefbacked Over | 55c | 22.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa627…aee0backed Over | 55c | 22.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 71cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5e…d255backed Over | 55c | 22.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59e9…7ed8backed Over | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf59e…1f1dbacked Over | 55c | 21.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…6977backed Over | 55c | 21.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 64cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x121c…b866backed Over | 55c | 20.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 53c | 20.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd88a…0faebacked Over | 55c | 18.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.