MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd49c4f9f8114edd99ca89f7bf8c1a40b61415cc13fe2605aa1c5baed660bc382
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 57c | 1,167$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.81 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 42c | 1,080$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.68 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 42c | 682.98$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.84 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 59c | 632.41$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.29 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Under | 61c | 408.37$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.35 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 39c | 297.12$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.88 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 59c | 283$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.32 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 41c | 223.49$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.63 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 41c | 219.61$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.04 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Over | 43c | 161.36$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 39c | 140.4$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Over | 44c | 126.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Under | 59c | 125$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 57c | 115$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 59c | 109$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.69 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 43c | 107.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 143 | 58%83 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 58c | 89.37$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.54 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 56c | 74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 59c | 70.02$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 47c | 61.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 57c | 58.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 61c | 56.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed Over | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x294b…22d2backed Under | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 39c | 48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Over | 42c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 61c | 44.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 40c | 33.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…7b57backed Over | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7c…666cbacked Under | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.