MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1354a778f17f37f969452dff60e3486848ab775bea0dc8689e8e02aab1d460c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Milwaukee Brewers, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad64…2f33backed Milwaukee Brewers | 33c | 5,981$2,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,980.26 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 69c | 4,822$3,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,326.85 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 1,500$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 296 | 47.3%140 W · 156 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 31c | 1,027$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.1 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 814.11$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.03 | 456 | 50.4%230 W · 226 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Philadelphia Phillies | 69c | 811.97$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.26 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 69c | 600$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Milwaukee Brewers | 30c | 600$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 420$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 395.93$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.56 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Philadelphia Phillies | 69c | 362.3$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.76 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 71c | 299.98$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.99 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 278$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.8 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x974d…bd82backed Milwaukee Brewers | 29c | 275.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.86 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Philadelphia Phillies | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 133.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Milwaukee Brewers | 31c | 129$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.01 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 34c | 105.4$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.56 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Milwaukee Brewers | 31c | 84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Milwaukee Brewers | 30c | 73.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.35 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 799 | 43.2%345 W · 454 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 68c | 58.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 70c | 44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 70c | 42.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Milwaukee Brewers | 33c | 40.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Milwaukee Brewers | 34c | 35.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 67c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Philadelphia Phillies | 70c | 19.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 70c | 19.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 16.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.