NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hawks (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe17628d4ff878c8f47df24dc06bde4b943a5864dc59b6fe2ff1325dc0b974e22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawksof Hawks, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $116,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Hawks | 50c | 100,743$50,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50,085.3 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kings | 50c | 20,349$10,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,074.52 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Kings | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 596 | 53.4%318 W · 278 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Kings | 49c | 15,020$7,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,409.8 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Kings | 50c | 15,000$7,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,500 | 257 | 53.7%138 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Kings | 50c | 14,464$7,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,212.8 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Kings | 52c | 6,152$3,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,196.62 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Kings | 50c | 2,488$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239.12 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Kings | 50c | 2,392$1,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,202.52 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Kings | 50c | 2,382$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,187.93 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Hawks | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 191 | 47.6%91 W · 100 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Kings | 50c | 1,488$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.12 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Kings | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Kings | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Kings | 51c | 578$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.78 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Kings | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Hawks | 49c | 491.48$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.9 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Kings | 49c | 300$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Hawks | 47c | 280.3$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.56 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Hawks | 51c | 251.93$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.29 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…97b3backed Hawks | 54c | 236.89$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.97 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Kings | 46c | 236.89$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.97 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca6d…0293backed Hawks | 46c | 196$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.84 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa405…fa4bbacked Hawks | 46c | 194$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…213abacked Hawks | 48c | 188$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.06 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4813…5d7dbacked Kings | 54c | 186$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x483a…e80cbacked Kings | 54c | 184$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…232fbacked Hawks | 46c | 181$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.74 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4c…1d5dbacked Hawks | 46c | 174$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.96 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f99…2fd1backed Kings | 54c | 173$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac56…fe60backed Kings | 54c | 167$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc290…bc01backed Kings | 54c | 164$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Kings | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.75 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Hawks | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe80…e0a6backed Hawks | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Kings | 51c | 86.78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…908dbacked Kings | 55c | 83.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…5a2cbacked Kings | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 246 | 53.3%131 W · 115 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b8…68a5backed Kings | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Kings | 53c | 49.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf921…94dbbacked Kings | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed Kings | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…0f01backed Kings | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…d6e6backed Hawks | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Kings | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hawks (-4.5)this page
- Hawks vs. KingsHawks won
- Hawks vs. Kings: O/U 231.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Kings: O/U 232.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Kings: O/U 233.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Kings: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Hawks (-3.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.