TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from July 7 to July 14, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,922
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,578

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,922 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9592…a7b8backed Yes66c384.16$252 inWon+$131.845228.8%15 W · 37 L-0.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ee9…7d37backed Yes30c219.28$65 inWon+$154.2810924.8%27 W · 82 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+38.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes47c173.21$82 inWon+$91.0631743.2%137 W · 180 L+28.2wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+13.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0442…c517backed Yes13c144.13$19 inWon+$125.169135.2%32 W · 59 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+53.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x60ec…8d4cbacked Yes17c130.18$22 inWon+$108.596243.5%27 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes26c128.07$33 inWon+$94.7976821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes56c118.2$66 inWon+$52.1111633.6%39 W · 77 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-34.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes54c106.13$57 inWon+$48.7410746.7%50 W · 57 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeffd…5aa6backed Yes11c92.72$10 inWon+$82.69924.2%24 W · 75 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-29%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No51c90$46 inLost-$45.7330955%170 W · 139 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes27c81.24$22 inWon+$59.61,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No73c78.13$57 inLost-$57.3210151.5%52 W · 49 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No28c67.5$19 inLost-$18.6812548%60 W · 65 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No33c65.37$22 inLost-$21.8329225%73 W · 219 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No53c63.98$34 inLost-$34.1422160.2%133 W · 88 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No21c51.27$11 inLost-$10.7610145.5%46 W · 55 L-7.3wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-16.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No78c49.8$39 inLost-$39.0519756.9%112 W · 85 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes27c46.41$12 inWon+$33.9512216.4%20 W · 102 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick9cpaid+40.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9db3…1d38backed Yes53c46.19$25 inWon+$21.61250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes66c45.89$30 inWon+$15.5612542.4%53 W · 72 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes34c43.03$15 inWon+$28.3425617.2%44 W · 212 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No75c40$30 inLost-$29.9321732.3%70 W · 147 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No75c31.39$24 inLost-$23.545754.4%31 W · 26 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No46c29.5$14 inLost-$13.552045%9 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No71c18.85$13 inLost-$13.3918949.2%93 W · 96 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b4b…8176backed No68c15.94$11 inLost-$10.92366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.