Australian A League · resolved market
Melbourne City FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1d062926330f7c349fed0efa1d8e6dc75778d0e1fd1be6561c03b724259d180
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 24c | 2,042$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.36 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b7…dbdabacked Under | 71c | 982.79$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.79 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 75c | 472.87$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.53 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9180…3ff1backed Over | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe02a…8e83backed Under | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 38c | 266.11$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.89 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 62c | 250.11$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.04 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 26c | 247.78$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.42 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | +19.0wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 28c | 108.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6b…81cbbacked Under | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 52cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Under | 75c | 83.33$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 60 | 80%48 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f9…3ab4backed Over | 25c | 79.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed Under | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 76c | 48.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…8528backed Under | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9b…c789backed Under | 74c | 27.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Under | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Under | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 72c | 16.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Melbourne City FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Melbourne City FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.