Australian A League · resolved market
Melbourne City FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x645ef6f2f37b8caebe245061ef268c41a487a9156cb4628ac5f7d11f89c90b4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3ad…69ccbacked Over | 1c | 5,762$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5df…382dbacked Under | 49c | 1,585$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 25c | 1,411$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060.4 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 50c | 1,329$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.38 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 65c | 538.12$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 56c | 330.73$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.95 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 61c | 327.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.82 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 312.05$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.25 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7acb…8c1dbacked Over | 73c | 258.35$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad1e…d9b0backed Over | 74c | 231.99$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 46c | 230$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.43 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb1…984ebacked Over | 31c | 216.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.45 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Under | 26c | 142.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.71 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked Over | 73c | 137.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9b…555cbacked Over | 73c | 136.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0d…1d6dbacked Under | 42c | 127.07$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb6…5517backed Under | 50c | 122.88$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…078cbacked Under | 63c | 113.9$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6d…aaefbacked Over | 48c | 111$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…8f18backed Under | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3510…2492backed Over | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0742…39a7backed Over | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 61c | 88.7$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17b7…f124backed Over | 75c | 84.4$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd5…30f0backed Over | 74c | 79.41$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaf…3996backed Over | 58c | 59.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 53c | 49.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Under | 52c | 48.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dc…840bbacked Over | 36c | 31.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 34c | 31.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Over | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c80…aa9abacked Under | 47c | 29.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43f9…d4e6backed Over | 63c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a51…14bfbacked Over | 59c | 26.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaab…8b4cbacked Under | 70c | 25.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a17…5791backed Over | 74c | 25.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 74c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Over | 73c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e84…b7f6backed Over | 63c | 22.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18e5…260cbacked Over | 74c | 18.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Melbourne City FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Melbourne City FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.