Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1d0f832d0ae3ed064845be9892e9fe50a1a081ce00cdb1a96d141e09914bec9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3d88…39d8backed Yes | 15c | 410.83$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 20c | 354.17$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.09 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 266.31$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.96 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 15c | 196.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 17c | 175.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 174.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 156.42$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 78c | 140.89$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 139.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 21c | 138.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 16c | 131.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed Yes | 23c | 130$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 26c | 114.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 15c | 105$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 16c | 102$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 93$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 39c | 88.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 23c | 86.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 78c | 85.65$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 75c | 71.44$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 75c | 69.73$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 68.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…674ebacked No | 80c | 66.54$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 63.3$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 23c | 61.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84a0…63a4backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…0b12backed Yes | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 24c | 45.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 76c | 26.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 73c | 26.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 77c | 22.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 74c | 22.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…f811backed No | 80c | 21.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C or higher on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C or below on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.