TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,672
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,700

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,672 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8116…b2a8backed No1c1,020$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0512152.1%63 W · 58 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No9c310$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.285,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No6c258.11$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.662,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No17c240.83$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.558422.8%133 W · 451 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No12c232.95$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.673,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No24c228.09$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7976755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes58c217.61$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd628…9356backed Yes51c213.88$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.2313344.4%59 W · 74 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+18.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No58c188.57$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.512,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes38c174.59$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.7217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No19c153.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes40c152.03$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.021,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No35c136.46$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.843,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x547b…d0babacked No47c135.95$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.810653.8%57 W · 49 L+12.0wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+27.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No46c131.34$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.314,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No36c131$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.355,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b7c…f811backed No43c130.19$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.778247.6%39 W · 43 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed Yes59c119.33$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.3389661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfecc…77dabacked Yes45c102$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.6340438.1%154 W · 250 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes37c100.41$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.2715939%62 W · 97 L+14.4wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+28%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked Yes52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.2279040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes55c99.99$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9929953.8%161 W · 138 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked Yes39c99.51$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.5772952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe54c…2c69backed Yes47c95.86$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.6725560.8%155 W · 100 L+16.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes47c95$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.624,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No60c89.31$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.157,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes53c80.03$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.693,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes39c76.52$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.9410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes52c76.13$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.273,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No43c75$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.241,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No49c74.75$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.752,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf362…0505backed Yes53c65.93$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.938453.6%45 W · 39 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No28c65.17$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.365,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes48c65$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.565,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7c2…d53dbacked No63c63.26$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7213755.5%76 W · 61 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked Yes58c60.19$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1939951.1%204 W · 195 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No38c59.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No33c59.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.934,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1600…9236backed Yes44c58.86$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.8635432.5%115 W · 239 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x13e0…82f9backed No46c55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0530565.9%201 W · 104 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf95…d76ebacked Yes55c54.73$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.391172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa36b…1d89backed Yes38c54.66$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.6955538.4%213 W · 342 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No52c53.05$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5298565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes40c52$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.219541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…0b12backed Yes42c50.72$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.41338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1385…e96abacked Yes38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3113732.1%44 W · 93 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked No56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2844646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3034633.8%117 W · 229 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.52,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcab6…f3debacked No59c47.24$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.13571.4%25 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed No54c44.75$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.168645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No50c41.24$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5780050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4760…9899backed Yes57c40.33$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.335644.6%25 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes51c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.816548.5%80 W · 85 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7229…ff73backed No50c39.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.681553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+30.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No59c38.68$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.652,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No62c36.09$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.492,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No56c36.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.992,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes50c36$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0632738.2%125 W · 202 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x79c4…9638backed No60c35.87$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.52875%6 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+16%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No36c35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.732,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No56c34.04$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1171159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No44c32.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5714745.6%67 W · 80 L-11.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8b42…405abacked Yes61c32.8$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.816833.9%57 W · 111 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes38c32.54$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.081,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No61c32.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6665965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes56c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.291444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No63c29.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.721,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No51c29.64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4da…cf3bbacked Yes43c28.27$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.211758.8%10 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick67cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No55c28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.492,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x194b…e572backed No58c27.69$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1519353.9%104 W · 89 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x932b…a773backed Yes44c27.57$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4422853.1%121 W · 107 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No62c26.64$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.524,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No59c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.851,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x242e…d2f9backed Yes45c24.44$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.441838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid+9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No56c23.93$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3499963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No47c22.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.782,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fbf…f003backed Yes44c22.9$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8230652.6%161 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No60c22.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x336e…bcc3backed No49c21.89$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.684746.8%22 W · 25 L+7.7wins+0.16per pick31cpaid+35.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x23d2…bc8ebacked No62c21.42$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.281747.1%8 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick63cpaid-29%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked No61c20.84$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7193837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc857…7c22backed No52c20.4$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.556262.9%39 W · 23 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No57c20.1$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4619057.9%110 W · 80 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.82,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x88b6…7a17backed No54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.795565.5%36 W · 19 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x789d…af8bbacked Yes53c19.09$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.979060%54 W · 36 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes64c18.42$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.582,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes61c17.65$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.911,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fa9…a323backed No67c16.59$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.127755.8%43 W · 34 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick64cpaid-12.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.