Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x911c62bd0f1a763847f8d2ae6cb105c590058ad0181b4addb14c150efc557689
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 19c | 616.43$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.45 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 413.04$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.08 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 67c | 349.15$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.43 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 345.52$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.24 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 78c | 266.65$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 34c | 201.88$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.18 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 25c | 196.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 34c | 177.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.25 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aec…6e19backed Yes | 13c | 153$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…be1dbacked Yes | 8c | 133.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 82 | 18.3%15 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 131.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a1…a85ebacked No | 79c | 123.55$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…674ebacked Yes | 33c | 122.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 74c | 111.32$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked Yes | 16c | 110.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 108.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 37c | 98.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked Yes | 19c | 96.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7229…ff73backed Yes | 19c | 95.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa6…49a1backed No | 74c | 91.71$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 21c | 88.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 75c | 86.11$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x336e…bcc3backed Yes | 18c | 84.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +7.7wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 54c | 83.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 79.81$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 17c | 77.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 79c | 77.02$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 20c | 76.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 74.1$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 16c | 67.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…76c2backed No | 66c | 66.78$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 33c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 23c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 64.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 31c | 64.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 72c | 63.71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 34c | 60.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 18c | 55.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf90…62b9backed Yes | 23c | 54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3f…c9a9backed Yes | 57c | 51.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 27c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…864cbacked No | 68c | 49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed No | 80c | 41.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 75c | 36.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 77c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 67c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 69c | 35.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 35.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…6083backed Yes | 30c | 34.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 65c | 33.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 68c | 32.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 44c | 28.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 57c | 27.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 78c | 26.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 66c | 25.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 56c | 24.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 66c | 23.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 72c | 22.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 73c | 22.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…1108backed No | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc857…7c22backed No | 70c | 20.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…008abacked No | 64c | 20.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 16.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddd…cab9backed No | 75c | 15.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C or higher on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C or below on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.