Tennis · resolved market
Tigre 2: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Juan Manuel La Serna
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1d335ce5cdb6b8cfe7a94cc5401ec9ada4d2531edd2c13da99c72ea61a33311
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dedura-Palomeroof Dedura-Palomero, Serna
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,094
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Serna | 3c | 17,625$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.83 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Serna | 4c | 2,573$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.56 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aad…20aebacked Dedura-Palomero | 64c | 1,574$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.98 | 524 | 60.9%319 W · 205 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Serna | 3c | 1,324$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…ed22backed Serna | 36c | 1,195$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.22 | 184 | 47.3%87 W · 97 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd33f…159cbacked Serna | 4c | 890$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Serna | 13c | 608.47$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.72 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Serna | 12c | 572.18$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.69 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…afbcbacked Serna | 16c | 481.54$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.52 | 145 | 41.4%60 W · 85 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc554…00adbacked Serna | 3c | 477.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Serna | 25c | 475.56$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.78 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Dedura-Palomero | 63c | 385.13$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.65 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Dedura-Palomero | 79c | 362.17$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.72 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Dedura-Palomero | 59c | 286.88$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.62 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Serna | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,266 | 34.2%433 W · 833 L | -43.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Serna | 37c | 213$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.62 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Serna | 39c | 170.24$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.45 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2509…e4dbbacked Serna | 40c | 167.29$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.52 | 248 | 44.8%111 W · 137 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0c…9db8backed Serna | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 244 | 54.9%134 W · 110 L | +12.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Serna | 40c | 142.75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Serna | 10c | 125.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 341 | 49.9%170 W · 171 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Serna | 38c | 122$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3892…8d8dbacked Serna | 46c | 106.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9183…59f0backed Dedura-Palomero | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 200 | 39%78 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Serna | 39c | 96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 737 | 45.2%333 W · 404 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Serna | 39c | 89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 970 | 46.6%452 W · 518 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Serna | 39c | 76.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 363 | 49.9%181 W · 182 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db0…f397backed Serna | 39c | 71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Serna | 38c | 66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 530 | 58.1%308 W · 222 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Serna | 47c | 64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Dedura-Palomero | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 1,615 | 50.6%817 W · 798 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Dedura-Palomero | 71c | 52.01$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 580 | 67.8%393 W · 187 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d3…25f8backed Dedura-Palomero | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Serna | 40c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba8…11a2backed Dedura-Palomero | 60c | 49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 100 | 63%63 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Serna | 39c | 36.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 689 | 51.1%352 W · 337 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd88a…1eefbacked Dedura-Palomero | 53c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 544 | 34.2%186 W · 358 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Serna | 40c | 33.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d78…a4ccbacked Dedura-Palomero | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 330 | 55.8%184 W · 146 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Dedura-Palomero | 69c | 24.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf110…9095backed Dedura-Palomero | 60c | 22.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.