Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Liberty Flames vs. Dayton Flyers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe237a51ad097909c212b83064241d47d34c20ef779c505c9f648369b53547dd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Liberty Flamesof Liberty Flames, Dayton Flyers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,701
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Liberty Flames | 60c | 3,900$2,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,556.01 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Liberty Flames | 15c | 2,881$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,448.8 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Liberty Flames | 55c | 2,092$1,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.04 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5520…32ffbacked Dayton Flyers | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Liberty Flames | 56c | 1,588$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.16 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Dayton Flyers | 59c | 1,381$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.92 | 556 | 57.4%319 W · 237 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Dayton Flyers | 49c | 1,289$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.64 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Dayton Flyers | 55c | 1,155$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.44 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Liberty Flames | 56c | 1,155$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.11 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Liberty Flames | 30c | 1,146$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.27 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Liberty Flames | 17c | 998.23$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.44 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Liberty Flames | 25c | 955.56$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.19 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Liberty Flames | 15c | 934.71$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.5 | 163 | 41.7%68 W · 95 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Dayton Flyers | 42c | 851.18$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.69 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Dayton Flyers | 43c | 584$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.98 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Liberty Flames | 20c | 500$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Liberty Flames | 15c | 497.19$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.61 | 401 | 47.6%191 W · 210 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Dayton Flyers | 50c | 365.57$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.39 | 456 | 44.5%203 W · 253 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…ed44backed Dayton Flyers | 20c | 350$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 464 | 46.8%217 W · 247 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Liberty Flames | 15c | 300$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Liberty Flames | 73c | 290$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.66 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c75…8c7abacked Dayton Flyers | 48c | 256.53$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.85 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…9faabacked Liberty Flames | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Dayton Flyers | 52c | 230.22$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.82 | 323 | 43%139 W · 184 L | -18.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Liberty Flames | 77c | 217$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…d9d7backed Dayton Flyers | 47c | 212.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Dayton Flyers | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x641f…942bbacked Liberty Flames | 36c | 169.19$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.49 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Liberty Flames | 40c | 149.72$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.15 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Liberty Flames | 25c | 139$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.69 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…fb86backed Liberty Flames | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Liberty Flames | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Dayton Flyers | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 368 | 45.7%168 W · 200 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Liberty Flames | 16c | 90.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.8 | 643 | 22.9%147 W · 496 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a4…7602backed Dayton Flyers | 68c | 80$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Dayton Flyers | 67c | 59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 735 | 49.1%361 W · 374 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…0837backed Dayton Flyers | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Liberty Flames | 59c | 38.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 327 | 51.7%169 W · 158 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Dayton Flyers | 30c | 33.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Dayton Flyers | 58c | 31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 227 | 56.4%128 W · 99 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Liberty Flames | 45c | 25.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 536 | 35.6%191 W · 345 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Liberty Flames | 79c | 12.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Liberty Flames vs. Dayton Flyersthis page
- Liberty Flames vs. Dayton Flyers: O/U 143.5Under won
- Spread: Dayton Flyers (-10.5)Liberty Flames won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.