Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on February 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2432b1f9e183e625e455c4d7400a3244bd2944b55564196603c4b39f96f305c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 10c | 845.04$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.54 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 18c | 693.47$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.66 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 624.83$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7660…c588backed Yes | 6c | 467.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.55 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 8c | 296.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 263.73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.49 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 16c | 233.09$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.09 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 24c | 206.59$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd75c…fd4ebacked Yes | 24c | 201$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.25 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 9c | 199.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fb…94e2backed Yes | 67c | 135.71$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 47c | 128.31$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.59 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 13c | 120.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.94 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 14c | 108.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.38 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c52…0d1abacked Yes | 59c | 100.32$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 11c | 92.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.9 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6622…e28bbacked Yes | 26c | 90.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.41 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 24c | 90.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.61 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 15c | 77.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.44 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 22c | 72.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.88 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 59.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…98a3backed No | 45c | 48.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 55c | 48.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes | 55c | 40.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4c…631cbacked Yes | 65c | 30.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 54cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac7…744dbacked Yes | 68c | 29.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff8a…f11ebacked Yes | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 63c | 22.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 70c | 21.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…043fbacked Yes | 74c | 20.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3692…2136backed No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on February 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C or below on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or higher on February 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.