Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on February 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f61a3e9b3d576d47046bd5b0bf3f1c37aeb9c2826c773b38361f9853a615d61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 27c | 606.89$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.36 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 25c | 239.42$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.49 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 76c | 197.98$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.98 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 134.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 48c | 110$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 70c | 107.3$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 105.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf360…6726backed Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7660…c588backed Yes | 45c | 89.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 32c | 75.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa728…2dc8backed No | 69c | 71.83$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe91a…a33ebacked Yes | 39c | 64.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 22c | 62.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 69c | 60.11$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 17c | 59.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…1b2dbacked No | 64c | 55.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 54.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…986bbacked No | 64c | 52.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 30c | 49.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…59cabacked Yes | 28c | 44.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00b5…a03abacked Yes | 38c | 43.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 68c | 42.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac6…b663backed No | 66c | 37.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd75c…fd4ebacked Yes | 32c | 34.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 38c | 34.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94c8…b47ebacked Yes | 34c | 34.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 39c | 32.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…1776backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a9…8a2cbacked No | 73c | 25.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b3…3a2bbacked Yes | 41c | 25.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf24…75a8backed No | 80c | 21.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…ab48backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -29%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6e…badfbacked No | 73c | 18.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…3851backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e57…6d5cbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 73c | 13.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on February 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C or below on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on February 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or higher on February 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.