Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe26aa96e7df037a0c42f0b437c3460f334e955317ed203ea785bef9074024974
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AFC Bournemouthof Aston Villa FC, AFC Bournemouth
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,999
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,520
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,999 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Aston Villa FC | 25c | 2,081$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.97 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ad…45ccbacked AFC Bournemouth | 73c | 1,830$1,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.1 | 109 | 62.4%68 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed AFC Bournemouth | 79c | 1,318$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.88 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed AFC Bournemouth | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Aston Villa FC | 19c | 544.04$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.37 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Aston Villa FC | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 246 | 30.5%75 W · 171 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9403…7361backed Aston Villa FC | 19c | 210.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed AFC Bournemouth | 76c | 210$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Aston Villa FC | 21c | 190.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed AFC Bournemouth | 79c | 130$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 451 | 42.6%192 W · 259 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fb…6d42backed Aston Villa FC | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Aston Villa FC | 24c | 104$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Aston Villa FC | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked AFC Bournemouth | 79c | 14.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)this page
- AFC Bournemouth vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AFC Bournemouth vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- AFC Bournemouth vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- AFC Bournemouth vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- AFC Bournemouth vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)AFC Bournemouth won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.