Premier League · resolved market
AFC Bournemouth vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12f2e707ffc037b07101b162ac009e8173c9c4b2e1d6ccf167831e66f36c01a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $116,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d16…d24dbacked Under | 64c | 83,333$53,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,999.88 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 36c | 51,248$18,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,443.35 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 39c | 21,356$8,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,230.24 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb50a…3348backed Over | 39c | 15,152$5,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,867.13 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Under | 61c | 4,552$2,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,775.3 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 61c | 1,586$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.54 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 43c | 765.29$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.68 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 36c | 753.77$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.35 | 337 | 53.1%179 W · 158 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Under | 71c | 710$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.9 | 135 | 65.2%88 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Over | 33c | 549.63$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.38 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 61c | 404.97$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.89 | 524 | 54.2%284 W · 240 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefe4…8f49backed Under | 64c | 330$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 37c | 267.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 354 | 28.5%101 W · 253 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Over | 36c | 185.85$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.69 | 426 | 58%247 W · 179 L | +24.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 65c | 184.61$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.61 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x026c…8d76backed Under | 65c | 155$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +18%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 36c | 121$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c7…4078backed Over | 70c | 85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 45c | 83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 198 | 53%105 W · 93 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 66c | 75.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 432 | 41.9%181 W · 251 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Over | 38c | 56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -8.7wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 375 | 54.9%206 W · 169 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 35c | 46.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Over | 34c | 40.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 815 | 59%481 W · 334 L | +32.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 36c | 37.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 58c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Under | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 360 | 36.1%130 W · 230 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AFC Bournemouth vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5this page
- AFC Bournemouth vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AFC Bournemouth vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- AFC Bournemouth vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- AFC Bournemouth vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)AFC Bournemouth won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)AFC Bournemouth won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.