Middle East · resolved market
U.S. military action against Iran by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe28de23964e2afe5d77e572e82f4fa7cdfdc9ad637883a2259f2c9e7d04b4196
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $313,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $241,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $313,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b93…3c34backed Yes | 5c | 24,801$1,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,315.19 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…f7c0backed Yes | 3c | 15,890$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 7c | 14,118$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034.64 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d23…8f86backed Yes | 4c | 12,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe410…de46backed Yes | 8c | 12,272$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.3 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 1c | 10,958$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.63 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48a6…6bd0backed Yes | 2c | 9,646$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 11c | 9,240$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.67 | 162 | 46.3%75 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa16…5fffbacked Yes | 8c | 9,000$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b60…f259backed Yes | 19c | 7,755$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 2c | 7,571$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.45 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60dd…f4b1backed Yes | 11c | 7,097$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 4c | 6,576$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1215…0702backed Yes | 10c | 6,115$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b08…7c3dbacked Yes | 10c | 5,041$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…0e65backed Yes | 1c | 2,400$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 1c | 2,359$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Yes | 1c | 2,300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x114f…686cbacked Yes | 10c | 2,289$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.05 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 11c | 2,285$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.34 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Yes | 15c | 2,172$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.95 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb011…2d13backed Yes | 28c | 2,076$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.15 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908d…1d99backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca6…6b28backed Yes | 15c | 2,000$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…237abacked Yes | 3c | 1,750$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…6fecbacked Yes | 14c | 1,630$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.94 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e91…b801backed Yes | 7c | 1,590$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.68 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +5.6wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d9…bb87backed Yes | 9c | 1,231$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 2c | 1,220$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2855…afffbacked Yes | 4c | 1,055$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d96…91f6backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…803ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…8e00backed Yes | 9c | 899$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5143…432ebacked Yes | 12c | 882.06$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…35d2backed Yes | 10c | 800$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1189…a9e0backed Yes | 9c | 750$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -92.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…bbe6backed Yes | 4c | 663.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dea…ec31backed Yes | 12c | 604.41$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2134…0734backed Yes | 8c | 585$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd993…844abacked Yes | 10c | 501$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a79…f197backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3634…310dbacked Yes | 6c | 456.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0496…d6d7backed Yes | 9c | 450.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88bd…4c17backed Yes | 10c | 420$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98dc…3ffcbacked Yes | 9c | 417.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f6…7affbacked Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2600…2829backed Yes | 9c | 406.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…fdf3backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x593d…7d5dbacked Yes | 7c | 388.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8259…bd18backed Yes | 12c | 364.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7f…be13backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x039e…c5e0backed Yes | 7c | 290.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…a4d7backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb23…d357backed Yes | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf838…1509backed Yes | 9c | 273.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef9…83d6backed Yes | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93b6…2dcebacked Yes | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f55…676ebacked Yes | 15c | 271.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +87%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac2…0b71backed Yes | 10c | 270$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x074b…a249backed Yes | 12c | 243.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…26ecbacked Yes | 8c | 236.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa3…c526backed Yes | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x613c…58b5backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb393…9276backed Yes | 5c | 211.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 6c | 202.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf577…972ebacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d37…fbc0backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce68…8c13backed Yes | 12c | 194.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…085bbacked Yes | 9c | 192$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb484…12dbbacked Yes | 8c | 160$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…8070backed Yes | 9c | 154.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1179…b4a0backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…ea76backed Yes | 11c | 136$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff57…f0a9backed Yes | 10c | 128.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0317…7f6bbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…de71backed Yes | 9c | 122.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x079b…6c22backed Yes | 10c | 107.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d52…7055backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc78…e036backed Yes | 13c | 93.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea7d…da59backed Yes | 16c | 82.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aca…d7d5backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.