Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Nõmme Kalju FC win on 2026-07-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2a6c4083b3f7891d98b63667a78892f510024d66fc66125857e337a0a77294a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 15c | 3,037$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.54 | 112 | 26.8%30 W · 82 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 61c | 2,903$1,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.66 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4cc…3a42backed Yes | 46c | 2,100$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 79c | 1,613$1,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.23 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 2c | 1,285$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 39c | 1,100$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.99 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 15c | 955.43$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.57 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 73c | 815.57$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.36 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d12…ccc3backed Yes | 4c | 750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed No | 74c | 605.32$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.57 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc12e…7c8abacked Yes | 41c | 597.56$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +106.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 5c | 483.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 11c | 344$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 152 | 40.8%62 W · 90 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed No | 66c | 330$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.7 | 170 | 59.4%101 W · 69 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 69c | 268.76$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.25 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Yes | 8c | 249.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed Yes | 39c | 249.51$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.31 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Yes | 16c | 193.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 63c | 187.73$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.46 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 7c | 151.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 10c | 151$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | +27.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Yes | 15c | 140$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 164 | 43.9%72 W · 92 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Yes | 37c | 136.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162c…6c47backed Yes | 15c | 124.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 15c | 113.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 318 | 42.1%134 W · 184 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…fc1fbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…cc2ebacked Yes | 18c | 90.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Yes | 15c | 88.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 264 | 17.8%47 W · 217 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54ae…dc21backed No | 60c | 60.78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +46%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 35c | 42.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…02f3backed No | 78c | 32.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nõmme Kalju FC win on 2026-07-16?this page
- Will Linfield FC vs. Nõmme Kalju FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Linfield FC win on 2026-07-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.