Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2b03f761f4f233ac1b6e2df2938984e53d99b9bd75c2f31927b662f1f084e88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,530
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,530 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe918…f872backed No | 4c | 714.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 23c | 282.77$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.67 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 39c | 253.78$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.97 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 51c | 214$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.32 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 67c | 182.3$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.94 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 177.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.53 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 62c | 162.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 19c | 157.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 65c | 156.82$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.86 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 22c | 155.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…7d9abacked Yes | 29c | 135.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.42 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd5…5551backed Yes | 79c | 134.69$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 65c | 109.38$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.02 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 78c | 98.74$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.02 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 54c | 91.61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 41c | 80.15$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.91 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 61c | 77.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 76.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 26c | 70.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.67 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes | 29c | 69.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.87 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…4698backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 65.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 31c | 65.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.09 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 76c | 64.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 74c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0x7013…b95bbacked Yes | 52c | 57.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 65c | 53.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 29c | 51.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 30c | 50.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 55c | 50.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 77c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 30c | 49.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed Yes | 79c | 48.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 53c | 44.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c5…b9b6backed No | 78c | 39.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 45c | 37.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 64c | 36.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…644fbacked No | 46c | 32.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 31.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec4…6f33backed Yes | 37c | 31.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 35c | 31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes | 40c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 50c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 79c | 29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 85 | 65.9%56 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 66c | 27.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 58c | 23.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x933f…e9c6backed No | 78c | 21.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5664…1dfbbacked Yes | 52c | 20.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…ad63backed No | 74c | 20.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on March 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.