Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a8c765dc6ae37f12e041ff06828535d2f7fcd48eafac1a6d183913dbe415d4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,419
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,419 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc62d…8624backed Yes | 1c | 2,400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 26c | 358.5$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.44 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c5…b9b6backed Yes | 32c | 327.32$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.02 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 27c | 268.33$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.22 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 235.59$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.35 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 32c | 209.53$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.07 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 71c | 190.86$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.77 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 17c | 185.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 147.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed No | 69c | 145.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 69c | 144.08$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 63c | 127.01$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.99 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 39c | 119.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 32c | 118.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9e…154abacked No | 65c | 115.76$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 26c | 111.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 12c | 101.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb71c…97efbacked Yes | 50c | 99.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 71cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 25c | 94.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 61c | 81.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 28c | 77.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed No | 55c | 77.1$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 30c | 76.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28a1…69a1backed No | 69c | 74.92$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa3…5a51backed Yes | 20c | 59.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…e6f0backed No | 69c | 57.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff78…df44backed Yes | 24c | 55.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +16.2wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 76c | 52.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 29c | 51.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 38c | 48.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 44c | 46.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 24c | 46.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 28c | 44.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5664…1dfbbacked No | 80c | 38.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 57c | 34.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe311…a16fbacked No | 67c | 34.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 43c | 34.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 40c | 31.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 68c | 30.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7723…c6d8backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 29.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 49c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…644fbacked No | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 53c | 20.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b7…675cbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…3f6cbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…9397backed No | 78c | 18.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 17.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe466…1a58backed No | 68c | 17.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8d…541dbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on March 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 1?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.