Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C or below on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2b6bd482f6d5aac89b8b9b7671c97a3c05b6a8a0e274d71ebe8251b88ad2b8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,244
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,244 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 38c | 600.04$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.35 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 37c | 512.7$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.3 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 76c | 486.34$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.89 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 479.62$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 373.13$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 37c | 324.03$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.5 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 12c | 310.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 306.5$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.06 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 53c | 295.03$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.61 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 283.7$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.5 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 30c | 265.47$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.35 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 46c | 242.32$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.62 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 238.14$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.58 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 232.82$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 31c | 134.58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.28 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 16c | 132$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.52 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 20c | 125.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 16c | 121.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 42c | 117.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 28c | 116.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 11c | 113.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 21c | 111.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 12c | 105.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 15c | 105.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 18c | 105.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 76c | 97.25$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 50c | 97.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 58c | 95.39$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 44c | 90.05$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 15c | 83.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 37c | 82.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 56c | 81.06$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 56c | 80.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 77c | 80.93$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 44c | 76.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 33c | 73.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 71c | 70.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 20c | 66.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 36c | 60.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x375b…0ebbbacked Yes | 54c | 55.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 26c | 54.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 34c | 52.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 79c | 49.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 69c | 48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0285…9050backed No | 41c | 47.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd32…78dabacked Yes | 52c | 45.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 37cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ce…7b28backed Yes | 59c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 48c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 60c | 42.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 29c | 41.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c13abacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 60c | 35.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f77…4b79backed Yes | 71c | 35.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 59c | 33.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3147…9145backed Yes | 73c | 33.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 71c | 27.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 26.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 26.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ff…5301backed No | 40c | 26.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 65c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb1…bd66backed Yes | 61c | 24.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 48c | 23.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b4…f2c6backed Yes | 60c | 22.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked Yes | 54c | 22.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed Yes | 54c | 22.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 76c | 18.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes | 57c | 18.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 60c | 17.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C or below on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.