Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2b78a6d9598aed3faca0df0d9af4bb5851b11b1e209f7f5899595ecabe0a718
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,116
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 48c | 839$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 35c | 590.35$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.68 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked No | 58c | 510.2$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.83 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 366.97$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.51 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 40c | 222.23$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.29 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 49c | 181.62$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.72 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 49c | 176.23$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.5 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 149$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.64 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 64c | 140.48$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.72 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 122$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 55c | 116.69$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 115$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 107.8$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 47c | 104.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.33 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 103.61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 43c | 87.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 85.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 56c | 78$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.94 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 68.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 47c | 66.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48c8…4ccabacked No | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 21c | 62.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 49c | 60.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 66c | 51.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 57c | 45.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 54c | 42.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 57c | 40.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 51c | 32.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 46c | 32.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 55c | 32.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 45c | 28.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b27…5197backed No | 52c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 27.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 54c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 54c | 21.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 54c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on August 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.