College Football · resolved market
Northwestern vs. USC: O/U 51.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2f161ed7a600f5a293f9baeb65d135da068bdfce5ec6246919f565e297d3293
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $99,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Over | 54c | 47,267$25,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,964.69 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 22,807$10,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,727.95 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7be…3428backed Under | 43c | 18,004$7,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,741.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0a…57e6backed Over | 57c | 17,999$10,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,739.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 47c | 13,524$6,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,355.73 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff3c…09ebbacked Under | 45c | 8,000$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,600 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Over | 50c | 7,500$3,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,750 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 45c | 3,980$1,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,806.1 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 50c | 3,500$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 49c | 3,452$1,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,676.75 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed Under | 44c | 2,709$1,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,192.04 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Over | 58c | 2,700$1,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 45c | 2,700$1,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,214 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50be…371bbacked Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Under | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 44c | 795$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.8 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…34dbbacked Under | 51c | 794.12$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 55c | 474.76$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.64 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 50c | 402.35$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.22 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb99…5d0fbacked Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Under | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6d…1ba1backed Over | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ee…5800backed Over | 54c | 370.92$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d8…ad91backed Over | 53c | 250$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Over | 55c | 207.46$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.07 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43d4…13a2backed Over | 52c | 148.92$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.48 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…ad57backed Under | 48c | 115$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 55c | 113.35$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 127 | 55.9%71 W · 56 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +12.3wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…3e9fbacked Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…0730backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…c19dbacked Under | 47c | 94.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Over | 54c | 91.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f24…a537backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 50c | 54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…274ebacked Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Over | 49c | 49.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed57…e0a0backed Over | 53c | 47.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f6…f838backed Over | 55c | 45.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…cce3backed Over | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…09a3backed Over | 51c | 39.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…0a46backed Over | 53c | 39.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…019dbacked Under | 50c | 21.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Northwestern vs. USC: O/U 51.5this page
- Northwestern vs. USCUSC won
- Northwestern vs. USC: O/U 49.5Over won
- Northwestern vs. USC: O/U 52.5Over won
- Northwestern vs. USC: O/U 53.5Over won
- O/U 50.5Over won
- Spread: USC (-14.5)USC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.