College Football · resolved market
Spread: USC (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3426ef40b887a79aee48eae33d816c74bd3f2dfabdd5a17e36f2d5c22c127e32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- USCof USC, Northwestern
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $196,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $196,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $196,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Northwestern | 51c | 80,858$41,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,570.51 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed USC | 48c | 52,383$25,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,335.24 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7189…b454backed USC | 48c | 32,686$15,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,900 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Northwestern | 52c | 31,999$16,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,639.48 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Northwestern | 52c | 30,000$15,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,600 | 272 | 46%125 W · 147 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed USC | 48c | 18,102$8,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,413.22 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff3c…09ebbacked Northwestern | 52c | 15,000$7,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,800 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed USC | 48c | 10,979$5,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,709.04 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Northwestern | 53c | 10,718$5,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,661.79 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked USC | 48c | 8,000$3,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,160 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed USC | 49c | 7,275$3,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,724 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed USC | 48c | 7,000$3,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,640 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed USC | 50c | 6,783$3,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,391.7 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked USC | 48c | 5,943$2,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,090.36 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked USC | 49c | 4,787$2,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,447.16 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked USC | 48c | 4,715$2,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,428.49 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed USC | 48c | 4,212$2,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,190 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed USC | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,080 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Northwestern | 52c | 3,407$1,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,760.62 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed USC | 49c | 2,600$1,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,326 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bc…9dc9backed USC | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.82 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Northwestern | 52c | 1,377$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.04 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Northwestern | 51c | 1,050$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.52 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed USC | 50c | 1,010$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…34dbbacked USC | 49c | 863.27$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.27 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed USC | 31c | 844.32$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.61 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed USC | 48c | 604.17$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.17 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…a0a4backed USC | 49c | 356$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.08 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed USC | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.21 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked USC | 48c | 294.34$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Northwestern | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Northwestern | 51c | 249.99$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f85…7e17backed Northwestern | 53c | 235.85$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked USC | 47c | 235.85$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Northwestern | 69c | 205$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.45 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed USC | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked USC | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked Northwestern | 52c | 197$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.44 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed USC | 48c | 149.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda2…9bd7backed USC | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…7912backed USC | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Northwestern | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…0730backed USC | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Northwestern | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbea6…aed7backed Northwestern | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…c716backed Northwestern | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f21…fa6dbacked Northwestern | 52c | 96.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Northwestern | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Northwestern | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc47d…feeebacked Northwestern | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…f4c5backed USC | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Northwestern | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…b033backed Northwestern | 51c | 61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed USC | 48c | 54.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked USC | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 76 | 64.5%49 W · 27 L | +9.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed USC | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Northwestern | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed USC | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Northwestern | 52c | 46.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed USC | 49c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed USC | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc19e…7e4abacked Northwestern | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked USC | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed USC | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…ec0dbacked Northwestern | 52c | 26.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4173…fb7bbacked Northwestern | 52c | 23.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked Northwestern | 52c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd86d…b196backed Northwestern | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: USC (-14.5)this page
- Northwestern vs. USCUSC won
- Northwestern vs. USC: O/U 49.5Over won
- Northwestern vs. USC: O/U 51.5Over won
- Northwestern vs. USC: O/U 52.5Over won
- Northwestern vs. USC: O/U 53.5Over won
- O/U 50.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.