Tennis · resolved market
BNP Paribas Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jaqueline Cristian
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe33144d075a0fbbc1c225240859393e89b4fc6a4e88ef6ff183ea73a00f3237e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aryna Sabalenkaof Aryna Sabalenka, Jaqueline Cristian
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $385,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $385,255 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Jaqueline Cristian | 3c | 15,285$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.61 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6a…5b18backed Jaqueline Cristian | 5c | 12,946$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Jaqueline Cristian | 4c | 7,546$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.92 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Jaqueline Cristian | 3c | 5,267$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.74 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Jaqueline Cristian | 4c | 4,410$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.26 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…7967backed Jaqueline Cristian | 5c | 3,093$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.72 | 123 | 22%27 W · 96 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Jaqueline Cristian | 3c | 2,569$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.68 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Jaqueline Cristian | 7c | 2,469$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.28 | 305 | 42.6%130 W · 175 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9db1…d726backed Jaqueline Cristian | 2c | 2,302$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 118 | 32.2%38 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Jaqueline Cristian | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,421 | 28.6%407 W · 1,014 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc15…3a2ebacked Jaqueline Cristian | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70a2…6abebacked Jaqueline Cristian | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0767…f407backed Jaqueline Cristian | 1c | 1,657$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 99 | 6.1%6 W · 93 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Jaqueline Cristian | 4c | 1,523$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.21 | 242 | 29.8%72 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Jaqueline Cristian | 2c | 1,297$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 255 | 0.8%2 W · 253 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97a0…da35backed Jaqueline Cristian | 4c | 1,118$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 479 | 46.3%222 W · 257 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Jaqueline Cristian | 5c | 774$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Jaqueline Cristian | 4c | 700$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Jaqueline Cristian | 6c | 699$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 317 | 53.6%170 W · 147 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Jaqueline Cristian | 2c | 672.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Jaqueline Cristian | 6c | 550$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Jaqueline Cristian | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf945…7eb1backed Jaqueline Cristian | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Jaqueline Cristian | 7c | 368.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc667…0306backed Jaqueline Cristian | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Jaqueline Cristian | 5c | 297.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 442 | 29.6%131 W · 311 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked Jaqueline Cristian | 5c | 292.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Jaqueline Cristian | 4c | 268.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Jaqueline Cristian | 7c | 228.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 284 | 24.3%69 W · 215 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…4cf7backed Jaqueline Cristian | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x277c…e529backed Jaqueline Cristian | 7c | 142.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- BNP Paribas Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jaqueline Cristianthis page
- Sabalenka vs. Cristian: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Cristian (+1.5)Sabalenka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.