Mls · resolved market
Philadelphia Union vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe332fc9f6f650fff839b45a3d729a418ce2077ca3b8c12ba26e17e66c620adc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,868
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,868 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 78c | 4,689$3,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.48 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 19c | 3,484$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.66 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 34c | 617.09$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.81 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Under | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Under | 17c | 469$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.41 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 20c | 436.71$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.34 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd32c…be8bbacked Over | 75c | 404.34$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.34 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 29c | 287.33$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.08 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Under | 20c | 237.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 19c | 205.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 80c | 156$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 80c | 156$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 15c | 117.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked Under | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 70c | 66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 60c | 62.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 60c | 62.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 156 | 76.9%120 W · 36 L | +32.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 67c | 56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…01c6backed Under | 39c | 48.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 29c | 44.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 79c | 38.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Union vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 1.5this page
- Philadelphia Union vs. Columbus Crew: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 2.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 3.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Columbus Crew (-1.5)Philadelphia Union won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)Columbus Crew won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.