Mls · resolved market
Philadelphia Union vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbd1889ee94bc3a27b21d6ae281dfacd9cbde56ecb2a4f5e29ba792ce4888d45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,290
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,290 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 57c | 7,227$4,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,133.09 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 55c | 2,266$1,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012.62 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 42c | 2,000$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.99 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 56c | 1,245$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 58c | 1,130$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.2 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Under | 43c | 1,033$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.94 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72a6…cfefbacked Over | 50c | 888$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 45c | 871.89$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.58 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 41c | 827.06$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.03 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 42c | 724.72$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.06 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Under | 43c | 715.82$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.02 | 122 | 63.1%77 W · 45 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 42c | 705.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.99 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 61c | 680$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 54c | 637.74$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.77 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 50c | 597$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.5 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Under | 42c | 592$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.36 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd32c…be8bbacked Over | 54c | 550.57$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Under | 42c | 520.5$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.89 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30da…a11dbacked Over | 59c | 508.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Under | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 416.61$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.17 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 74c | 404.72$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.72 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x984c…e508backed Under | 63c | 400$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 40c | 363.04$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.98 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 64c | 357.67$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.53 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Under | 42c | 357.14$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.14 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 47c | 301$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.04 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 42c | 300.48$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.28 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 150 | 60%90 W · 60 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 51c | 298.18$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.07 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 59c | 293.44$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.13 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Under | 45c | 282.38$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.31 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 38c | 282.09$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.89 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 55c | 276.23$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.94 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 34c | 262$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.83 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Under | 43c | 260$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.2 | 121 | 62%75 W · 46 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 43c | 216$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.12 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 63c | 186.04$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.2 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc115…9138backed Over | 55c | 182.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Under | 42c | 178.57$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.57 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Over | 59c | 168.64$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Under | 43c | 160$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 144 | 59.7%86 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under | 43c | 156$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.92 | 144 | 59.7%86 W · 58 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 57c | 140.35$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 78c | 128.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 36c | 123.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 39c | 111$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 42c | 107.52$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.36 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 68c | 102.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 37c | 102.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -4.8wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbffb…a60ebacked Under | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 152 | 59.9%91 W · 61 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Over | 55c | 90.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 52c | 90$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 48c | 90$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26f2…1761backed Over | 62c | 80.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 61cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 36c | 79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Under | 43c | 65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20dc…f74cbacked Over | 39c | 64.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 23c | 64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 39c | 60.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 42c | 55.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 37c | 47.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f9…92e3backed Under | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed Under | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +11.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 43c | 35.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…8872backed Under | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89e9…c4a3backed Over | 56c | 28.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 42c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c91…af73backed Under | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…82bcbacked Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Union vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 2.5this page
- Philadelphia Union vs. Columbus Crew: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 1.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 3.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Columbus Crew (-1.5)Philadelphia Union won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)Columbus Crew won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.