MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe33796affe15b35c67e7acf48f391727a82b159dce5889017190a5841e4bc681
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 48c | 5,886$2,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,825.21 | 1,681 | 50.1%842 W · 839 L | -22.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 52c | 2,428$1,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,165.44 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.08 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 1,097$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.47 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 47c | 736.73$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.31 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 52c | 716.14$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.87 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 52c | 508.55$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.19 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 54c | 473$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.42 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 53c | 455.77$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.77 | 947 | 34.4%326 W · 621 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 52c | 404.99$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.4 | 925 | 54.1%500 W · 425 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 392.93$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.71 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 27c | 391.42$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.46 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Over | 54c | 358.35$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.84 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b45…d196backed Over | 51c | 330$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.7 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6c…0b46backed Over | 53c | 239.27$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.46 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 52c | 232.42$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.56 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 56c | 170.47$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.55 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Under | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 270 | 45.9%124 W · 146 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Under | 46c | 148.34$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.24 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 139.07$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.97 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 46c | 129.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.58 | 800 | 52%416 W · 384 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 46c | 112.91$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.47 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 49c | 96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 19c | 92.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 48c | 81.72$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Over | 51c | 71.82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 283 | 50.2%142 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Under | 47c | 69.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Under | 49c | 59.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fd…b476backed Over | 52c | 46.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 48c | 46.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 47c | 45.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Under | 47c | 45.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Over | 53c | 44.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 54c | 38.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab33…cf5dbacked Over | 54c | 37.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Over | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 47c | 31.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Over | 52c | 30.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Under | 50c | 24.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Under | 49c | 22.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 98 | 41.8%41 W · 57 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…0458backed Over | 69c | 19.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee BrewersWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 14.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.