Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Arouca vs. Moreirense FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3582d91f1a4472551cd856d1b71d8d0e53b7d8d170ea9b86f8a1fd9e5dc656a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 5c | 2,655$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.58 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 29c | 573.55$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.74 | 734 | 40.1%294 W · 440 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55fd…2c99backed Yes | 30c | 566.67$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 74c | 554.48$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.29 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9661…36f6backed Yes | 24c | 403.98$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.27 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 71c | 346.34$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.44 | 852 | 50.4%429 W · 423 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…d209backed Yes | 28c | 299.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 26c | 151.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 79c | 151.05$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 447 | 68%304 W · 143 L | +52.8wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 72c | 138$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 21c | 127.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 116.72$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 28c | 104.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed No | 71c | 86$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…f368backed Yes | 16c | 74.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Yes | 29c | 61.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 370 | 49.5%183 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 71c | 40.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 74 | 59.5%44 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2996…fd9dbacked No | 74c | 26.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…cee8backed No | 72c | 21.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed No | 72c | 16.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Arouca vs. Moreirense FC end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Arouca win on 2026-08-16?Yes won
- Will Moreirense FC win on 2026-08-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.