MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe38d9c23430215eaabe060c97bd761b403a8b9bb29d09d200f5898bc96b9592c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 48c | 4,442$2,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,142.75 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 3,591$1,867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,723.66 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 48c | 2,591$1,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,346.01 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 53c | 2,172$1,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.17 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Over | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 52c | 1,726$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.43 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 49c | 1,633$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.09 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 1,260$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.58 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 47c | 988.78$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.73 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Over | 21c | 743$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.96 | 180 | 56.1%101 W · 79 L | +11.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 13c | 727.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.02 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 47c | 586.26$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.72 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 47c | 586.26$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.72 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…b386backed Under | 54c | 460.23$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.23 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 46c | 437.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.82 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 379.75$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.09 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 53c | 292.53$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.3 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 36c | 282.58$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.22 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 43c | 228.84$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.44 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 47c | 151.09$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.08 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Over | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 57c | 87.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 74c | 81$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 45c | 60.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Under | 44c | 52.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 208 | 52.9%110 W · 98 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 61c | 48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Under | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…78abbacked Over | 53c | 40.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 46c | 37.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 40c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 71c | 30.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Under | 56c | 27.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 39c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 55c | 25.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5c…fb95backed Over | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b8…d4b3backed Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 45c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0f…f5edbacked Over | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99d5…9622backed Under | 53c | 19.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.