MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc7c1d008321be834bd16b08bbf982febd5c7b229186406baf5b26ee7814e62c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 42c | 1,947$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.95 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 59c | 1,924$1,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.63 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 71c | 784.91$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.04 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Over | 36c | 659.65$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.71 | 335 | 15.5%52 W · 283 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2003…af6fbacked Under | 9c | 509.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.49 | 124 | 46%57 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 48c | 416.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 59c | 396$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.64 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Under | 45c | 213$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.27 | 180 | 56.1%101 W · 79 L | +11.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 38c | 181.29$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.11 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 60c | 176.12$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.83 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 72c | 147$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.66 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 28c | 146$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.12 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 64c | 111$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.04 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 62c | 111$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 105.06$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 12c | 103.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Over | 50c | 99.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 53c | 77.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Under | 46c | 62.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 58c | 58.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 54c | 53.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Over | 68c | 50.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Under | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Over | 68c | 49.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Over | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 99 | 39.4%39 W · 60 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Over | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Over | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed Over | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa440…c249backed Over | 70c | 39.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked Over | 68c | 36.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 68c | 36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Over | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.