MLB · resolved market
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe39e5d1c22a807f8f30efcac213fd0b0f3162ae43904706b59fbdcd0d3267959
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Texas Rangers | 31c | 4,098$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.21 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Seattle Mariners | 70c | 2,445$1,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.5 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Seattle Mariners | 70c | 776.63$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.94 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Seattle Mariners | 63c | 293$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.61 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Texas Rangers | 37c | 273$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.01 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Seattle Mariners | 70c | 228.18$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.45 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Seattle Mariners | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Seattle Mariners | 66c | 173.64$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.04 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Texas Rangers | 35c | 168.32$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.91 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Seattle Mariners | 70c | 110.8$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Seattle Mariners | 69c | 106$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Texas Rangers | 30c | 103.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Seattle Mariners | 66c | 96.58$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Seattle Mariners | 66c | 96.38$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Seattle Mariners | 66c | 88.63$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners | 69c | 48.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Seattle Mariners | 66c | 48.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f4b…ba66backed Texas Rangers | 42c | 26.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Seattle Mariners | 70c | 18.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 203 | 62.6%127 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas RangersSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Texas RangersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.