TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6f4b…ba66

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
62
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: World Politics, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 53 out of 100; worst WNBA at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT2846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+62.8%+$31.4
France vs. England: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$75.24
France vs. England: O/U 7.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+54%+$10.8
France vs. England: England O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$8.57
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+116.2%+$23.24
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$30.65
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+32.5%+$6.49
Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Argentina vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$56.38
Exact Score: Any Other Score?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$53
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Belgium?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$38
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Belgium?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Mexico vs. England: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Colombia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$18.46
Will Australia win on 2026-07-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Australia vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$58.7
Australia vs. Egypt: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Switzerland vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$13.9
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+20.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubsbacked Chicago Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+183%+$151.64
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astrosbacked Houston Astros · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$10.32
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$10.33
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.67
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlinsbacked Miami Marlins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$12.42
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)backed Texas Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.99
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinalsbacked Cincinnati Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$32.33
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)backed Detroit Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.18
Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
All 9 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$64
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.56
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 3 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
WNBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Asian League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-07-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$152.71
Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$433Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$340.47
All 2 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$317Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+316.7%+$1,002.82
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Team Solid vs Vivo Keyd Stars Academy (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular Seasonbacked Team Solid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$22.72
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs GIANTX (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omegabacked GIANTX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$16.12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jul 28, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Heart of Midlothian FC (-1.5)backed SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+39.7%+$39.81
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Exact Score: FK Bodø/Glimt 2 - 0 Fredrikstad FK?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$7.19
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by March 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: GLYPH vs PlayTime (BO3) - Games of the Future Playoffsbacked GLYPH · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Oct 24, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$130
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Oct 5, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Texans vs. Ravensbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.