TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 100 Thieves (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
100 Thievesof Spirit, 100 Thieves
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$68,786
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$75,904

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,786 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0993…525fbacked Spirit56c15,000$8,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,349.976454.7%35 W · 29 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+32.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x559b…4959backed 100 Thieves44c8,279$3,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,603.932040%8 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaca0…9b86backed Spirit61c8,228$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0009834.7%34 W · 64 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Spirit61c5,853$3,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,562.691,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed 100 Thieves39c5,000$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,05037946.4%176 W · 203 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cbf…0eb4backed Spirit60c5,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00037157.7%214 W · 157 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7029…1136backed 100 Thieves43c4,221$1,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,423.9421351.2%109 W · 104 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2095…873ebacked 100 Thieves40c3,867$1,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,321.115534.5%19 W · 36 L-6.2wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-22.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked 100 Thieves39c2,886$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,760.175,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Spirit57c2,500$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,42571645.9%329 W · 387 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77a3…0e3fbacked 100 Thieves43c2,341$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,341.1926045%117 W · 143 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13c8…a814backed Spirit59c2,129$1,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,262.829951.5%51 W · 48 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed 100 Thieves40c2,050$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,23032844.8%147 W · 181 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked 100 Thieves48c2,005$962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,042.632552.6%171 W · 154 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked Spirit59c2,000$1,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,181.9619346.1%89 W · 104 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Spirit61c2,000$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,219.9936453.8%196 W · 168 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed 100 Thieves44c1,999$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,111.581,31053.7%703 W · 607 L+32.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Spirit52c1,802$937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$936.8561948%297 W · 322 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked 100 Thieves44c1,735$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$978.291,15748.2%558 W · 599 L+3.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e89…af95backed 100 Thieves41c1,720$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,014.798652.3%45 W · 41 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed 100 Thieves39c1,667$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,017.122,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked Spirit60c1,500$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90075245.5%342 W · 410 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed 100 Thieves42c1,298$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757.521,03353.2%550 W · 483 L+64.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed 100 Thieves40c1,250$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75059755.4%331 W · 266 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked 100 Thieves40c1,200$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72038844.3%172 W · 216 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94cb…64e3backed 100 Thieves39c1,200$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73215838%60 W · 98 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xced1…280ebacked Spirit59c1,200$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.993056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed 100 Thieves43c1,000$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.6350054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed 100 Thieves40c999.98$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.991,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfc9…7552backed Spirit59c999.98$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.9916749.1%82 W · 85 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked 100 Thieves40c904.3$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.5834943%150 W · 199 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a57…7b0abacked 100 Thieves41c888$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.9222449.6%111 W · 113 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked 100 Thieves39c639.49$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.891,49651.5%771 W · 725 L-7.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa949…7f5bbacked 100 Thieves44c621.21$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.2122243.7%97 W · 125 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b57…de6bbacked Spirit59c579.63$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.9819443.3%84 W · 110 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed 100 Thieves39c511.24$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.242,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9a4…8427backed 100 Thieves40c510$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3066848.5%33 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bfb…8beabacked 100 Thieves40c500$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3004654.3%25 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0fb…8092backed Spirit58c499.99$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.9913245.5%60 W · 72 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked 100 Thieves42c475.5$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.3448948.9%239 W · 250 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6c9…8bf1backed 100 Thieves42c454.76$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.7612748%61 W · 66 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d99…9c27backed 100 Thieves41c450.77$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.9514439.6%57 W · 87 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed 100 Thieves39c449.99$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.55,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb438…a67cbacked Spirit67c405.93$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.212142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-0.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e48…6158backed Spirit60c400$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24038052.6%200 W · 180 L+0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf917…bde0backed Spirit59c380.77$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.6512253.3%65 W · 57 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked 100 Thieves57c377.34$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.191,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Spirit58c352.43$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.599148.3%479 W · 512 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17b0…2c88backed 100 Thieves44c345.59$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.531776.5%13 W · 4 L+4.9wins+0.29per pick47cpaid+67.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x6d20…a165backed Spirit59c340.34$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.86160.7%37 W · 24 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+23.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked 100 Thieves39c300$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.4491945.8%421 W · 498 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe66e…96e8backed Spirit60c250$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1507842.3%33 W · 45 L+0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04a7…164bbacked Spirit59c250$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.533459%197 W · 137 L+24.3wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xed1c…494dbacked Spirit60c230.83$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9166…b479backed Spirit59c220.3$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.9810749.5%53 W · 54 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x14b0…a142backed 100 Thieves44c210.59$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.935244.2%23 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99fe…b61cbacked Spirit59c203.39$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12048242.1%203 W · 279 L-13.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed 100 Thieves41c199.99$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.9955941%229 W · 330 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa371…eaa5backed Spirit61c199.77$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12215347.1%72 W · 81 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xffca…0b64backed Spirit58c198.98$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.4152150.3%262 W · 259 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9345…0afbbacked Spirit60c179.9$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.8415363.4%97 W · 56 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf98b…57bbbacked Spirit61c170$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.738157.7%220 W · 161 L-1.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked Spirit59c169.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10024038.3%92 W · 148 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Spirit59c164.2$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.881,61846.8%758 W · 860 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbdd…cd9dbacked Spirit61c163.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10021362.4%133 W · 80 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82a1…e38bbacked 100 Thieves45c160$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888441.7%35 W · 49 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Spirit38c159.2$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.892,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd3d…e430backed 100 Thieves40c150$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa750…0d0fbacked Spirit60c150$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9018549.2%91 W · 94 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b2c…f0d6backed Spirit54c143.42$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785261.5%32 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x173e…9ff4backed Spirit58c130$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.410537.1%39 W · 66 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe41c…afabbacked Spirit59c127.12$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7549651.2%254 W · 242 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dcb…50fcbacked 100 Thieves40c125$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7514037.1%52 W · 88 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f90…4c92backed 100 Thieves40c125$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753132.3%10 W · 21 L-4.4wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-27.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcf7a…3de0backed 100 Thieves41c121.95$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.956847.1%32 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked Spirit9c119.28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7428037.9%106 W · 174 L-17.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb64c…393dbacked 100 Thieves47c106.16$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.169246.7%43 W · 49 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d61…eb8ebacked Spirit61c100.43$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7981246.2%375 W · 437 L-35.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac68…f1fcbacked Spirit59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5916156.5%91 W · 70 L+0.6wins0.00per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2bf…3e90backed 100 Thieves40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606946.4%32 W · 37 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb171…7d2bbacked 100 Thieves39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6110561%64 W · 41 L+8.1wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+20.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcedf…0155backed Spirit43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x420b…965bbacked Spirit59c90$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.158254.3%316 W · 266 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x483d…a099backed Spirit56c89.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9326346.4%122 W · 141 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd331…733cbacked 100 Thieves41c84$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.719457.2%111 W · 83 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed 100 Thieves40c80$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4816935.5%60 W · 109 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc1bf…b83cbacked Spirit60c73.63$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.183540%14 W · 21 L-4.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-27.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed 100 Thieves38c71.97$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.6266851.8%346 W · 322 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1298…97b6backed 100 Thieves42c71.55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.553043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed 100 Thieves40c70$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4280740.3%325 W · 482 L-3.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8ba…4b8abacked Spirit45c69.31$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50dc…16b2backed 100 Thieves36c69.29$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.291526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d1c…6b60backed Spirit59c67.8$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406346%29 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed 100 Thieves41c67.56$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.8630939.2%121 W · 188 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed 100 Thieves41c67.38$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.922,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8766…0ef8backed Spirit59c66$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9412152.9%64 W · 57 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+23%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc7d…8895backed 100 Thieves42c59.52$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5222460.7%136 W · 88 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf331…2489backed 100 Thieves42c57.14$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.1421252.8%112 W · 100 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x997c…51f3backed Spirit27c54.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5222954.6%125 W · 104 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e78…fb29backed Spirit56c51.72$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.962751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.