CS2 · resolved market
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs 100 Thieves (+6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69090de38ffd2f5c8472a84d35e07e91294ff8964a3ad118ba0fcbb264f9a6e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 100 Thievesof Spirit, 100 Thieves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe34a…b6c1backed Spirit | 0c | 40,590$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked 100 Thieves | 68c | 2,517$1,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.11 | 1,496 | 51.5%771 W · 725 L | -7.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7029…1136backed 100 Thieves | 63c | 1,061$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.96 | 213 | 51.2%109 W · 104 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a66…fa83backed Spirit | 32c | 845$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.35 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe075…bf89backed Spirit | 31c | 750$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.5 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…e055backed Spirit | 38c | 658.27$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.14 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee5f…5508backed Spirit | 32c | 620$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.4 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…3ea1backed Spirit | 36c | 500.99$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.36 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8976…7367backed 100 Thieves | 67c | 374$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.42 | 156 | 48.1%75 W · 81 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked 100 Thieves | 68c | 328.34$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.34 | 545 | 43.5%237 W · 308 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…2549backed Spirit | 31c | 296.77$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…3984backed 100 Thieves | 67c | 235.82$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.82 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed 100 Thieves | 62c | 158.27$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.14 | 323 | 44.3%143 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2f…9765backed Spirit | 36c | 119.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd83…d102backed 100 Thieves | 67c | 102$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x611f…1f84backed Spirit | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb11…7901backed 100 Thieves | 67c | 95$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Spirit | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312c…ceecbacked Spirit | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked 100 Thieves | 67c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 812 | 44.3%360 W · 452 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs 100 Thieves (+6.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Bounty QualifierSpirit won
- Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Spirit - Map 1 WinnerSpirit won
- Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner100 Thieves won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs 100 Thieves (+3.5)100 Thieves won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs 100 Thieves (+3.5)100 Thieves won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-9.5) vs 100 Thieves (+9.5)100 Thieves won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs 100 Thieves (+3.5)Spirit won
- Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 100 Thieves (+1.5)100 Thieves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.