CS2 · resolved market
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a5b02aab11f512d301785dba226d7483ebbc66c5ce61778bba4825a1934d653
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 50c | 448.39$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.2 | 812 | 44.3%360 W · 452 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb775…36f5backed Over | 50c | 404$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 227 | 57.3%130 W · 97 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d38…cc4ebacked Under | 55c | 333$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.85 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Under | 51c | 249.99$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1eab…4822backed Over | 49c | 204.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13c8…a814backed Over | 49c | 169.04$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.83 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe41c…afabbacked Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 496 | 51.2%254 W · 242 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb797…1cf3backed Over | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbba7…1e07backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93c3…3451backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc313…6645backed Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 226 | 51.3%116 W · 110 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfb…7665backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d61…eb8ebacked Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 812 | 46.2%375 W · 437 L | -35.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Under | 51c | 24.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 249 | 43.8%109 W · 140 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Under | 52c | 19.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +9.9wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +35%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0e…3a6ebacked Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5this page
- Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Bounty QualifierSpirit won
- Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Spirit - Map 1 WinnerSpirit won
- Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner100 Thieves won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs 100 Thieves (+3.5)100 Thieves won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs 100 Thieves (+3.5)100 Thieves won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs 100 Thieves (+6.5)100 Thieves won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-9.5) vs 100 Thieves (+9.5)100 Thieves won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs 100 Thieves (+3.5)Spirit won
- Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 100 Thieves (+1.5)100 Thieves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.