MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e76be3b9477592627986ce3006ff2065cc652cc725d158e7e9963324743ab00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,746
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,746 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8f3…7e0bbacked Under | 64c | 8,998$5,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,239.29 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 29c | 4,927$1,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,432.19 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 36c | 4,826$1,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,731.13 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 65c | 2,547$1,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.62 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 31c | 2,260$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.78 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 23c | 1,455$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.55 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 61c | 1,035$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.39 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 33c | 835.83$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.62 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 37c | 829.55$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.3 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 61c | 545.12$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.79 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x189c…c9aebacked Under | 51c | 505$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.45 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 35c | 441.17$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.41 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 66c | 343$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.62 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 44c | 300$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.53 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 24c | 241.91$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Over | 44c | 233.27$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Over | 43c | 207.1$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 58c | 195.45$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.54 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under | 47c | 138$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.14 | 309 | 34.3%106 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Over | 44c | 135.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.54 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 43c | 123.26$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 43c | 118.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Over | 43c | 103.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 61c | 103.49$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 17c | 98.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 37c | 73.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Over | 43c | 69.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4438…f659backed Under | 70c | 65.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…4716backed Over | 16c | 63.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 61c | 51.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 34c | 43.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Over | 25c | 43.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb323…e253backed Under | 60c | 41.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f4b…ba66backed Over | 38c | 38.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Over | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…f135backed Over | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Over | 43c | 34.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x352b…abd8backed Under | 62c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 35c | 32.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Under | 71c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a1…d1eebacked Under | 63c | 30.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Under | 62c | 29.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 64c | 27.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Under | 59c | 27.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 73c | 18.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.