MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83429e89ab4f6eb47e6d92d45a24fb15b2df6f83868072b2444b79d7434182c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Dodgersof Los Angeles Dodgers, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Seattle Mariners | 54c | 3,408$1,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,840.78 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners | 51c | 1,992$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.49 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…fe05backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 49c | 1,982$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.03 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 31c | 1,271$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.22 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf844…ee3cbacked Seattle Mariners | 52c | 1,256$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.11 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.15 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 54c | 999.99$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.93 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Seattle Mariners | 66c | 995.15$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.8 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 60c | 877.37$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.2 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Seattle Mariners | 22c | 545.74$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.7 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…7f85backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 63c | 476.19$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.19 | 32 | 81.3%26 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…d264backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 70c | 461$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.3 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners | 12c | 210.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 155.65$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.29 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…697dbacked Seattle Mariners | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Seattle Mariners | 32c | 143.37$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8e…3dc3backed Seattle Mariners | 33c | 136.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Seattle Mariners | 23c | 103.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 52c | 99.21$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.51 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Seattle Mariners | 23c | 97.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4438…f659backed Seattle Mariners | 32c | 93.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 32c | 48.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Seattle Mariners | 68c | 48.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 67c | 36.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…f135backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 67c | 26.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Seattle Mariners | 69c | 24.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Seattle Mariners | 68c | 22.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 78c | 15.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Seattle Mariners | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.