MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8b6d950ff01ca0b60caa91ee5b2552f49581ee29d9288f8360de2a77695c6c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,721
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,716
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,721 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 56c | 10,049$5,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,611.94 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Over | 44c | 5,000$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,800 | 362 | 46.1%167 W · 195 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 44c | 4,640$2,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,598.66 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 56c | 1,339$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.89 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 55c | 1,229$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.95 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 44c | 1,176$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 54c | 1,085$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.9 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 46c | 967.64$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.53 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 54c | 904.5$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.43 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 44c | 853.35$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.11 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 595.11$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.26 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 44c | 585$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.6 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…71bdbacked Over | 45c | 339.8$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.89 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 306.93$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.38 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 56c | 225$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 44c | 225$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 44c | 199$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.44 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 68c | 181.07$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.92 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x428d…8cb6backed Under | 55c | 176.09$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.85 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 57c | 171.24$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.61 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed Under | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 45c | 155$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.55 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 45c | 146.39$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.49 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 45c | 125.24$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.88 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Over | 46c | 114.19$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.66 | 736 | 53%390 W · 346 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 56c | 85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c31…5380backed Under | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 46c | 77.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91bc…28d6backed Under | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 197 | 54.8%108 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 45c | 65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 45c | 60.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x313d…6f98backed Under | 55c | 59.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 50c | 55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 54c | 54.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Over | 45c | 54.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 55c | 54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e52…23acbacked Under | 61c | 49.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Under | 51c | 41.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 56c | 34.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x093a…e580backed Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 45c | 31.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Over | 49c | 31.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 40c | 30.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 46c | 28.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Under | 53c | 25.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa94…b3f4backed Over | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Over | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas RangersSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Texas RangersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.