TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,708
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,760

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,708 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa9bc…d6d1backed Under7c5,965$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over55c3,273$1,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,470.764,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x300b…f636backed Under64c2,500$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.9923357.9%135 W · 98 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over49c2,354$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,204.342,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under45c2,140$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.3310,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Under63c1,587$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.8120455.9%114 W · 90 L+0.5wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under10c850$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8970737.6%266 W · 441 L+24.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a49…651abacked Under64c720$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.9523052.6%121 W · 109 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e50…0ea8backed Under4c700$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28577%4 W · 53 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+83%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6d0…712dbacked Under58c600$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3509950.5%50 W · 49 L-0.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over37c355.96$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.4111,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Over39c282.07$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.063,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Under63c248.61$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.131,85153.1%982 W · 869 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57cc…0fa7backed Over36c231$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.8422448.7%109 W · 115 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Over35c230.77$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Over36c227.62$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.243,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd52…aa25backed Under71c203.58$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.5428152%146 W · 135 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Under54c196.42$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.074,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over36c184.34$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.421,79643.8%786 W · 1,010 L-33.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87f0…361dbacked Under64c160$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.49554.7%52 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce00…7d1dbacked Under65c153.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017952.5%94 W · 85 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ad8…5004backed Under64c142.56$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.2418855.3%104 W · 84 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32e2…af02backed Under24c83.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013850.7%70 W · 68 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x09b5…fd79backed Under65c76.92$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5018556.2%104 W · 81 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c3e…d412backed Under65c76.92$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017557.1%100 W · 75 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Over40c70.79$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.772,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe2b…51debacked Under63c63.49$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4022257.7%128 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5dc8…e209backed Over37c54.05$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0546152.1%240 W · 221 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1607…2c65backed Under58c51.72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3021954.8%120 W · 99 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over36c47.81$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.379,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b46…fd16backed Under65c46.06$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306556.9%37 W · 28 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c54…bebbbacked Under46c44.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.386354%34 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0477…631cbacked Under50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017155.6%95 W · 76 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe481…d138backed Over37c40$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.288247.7%421 W · 461 L+3.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Under46c38.04$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.51,72550.1%864 W · 861 L-4.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeccc…f0f8backed Under77c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.18653.5%46 W · 40 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over36c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.24,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc22e…eab8backed Over37c29.79$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7748851.6%252 W · 236 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x212b…0ba5backed Over37c27.03$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0353655.8%299 W · 237 L+22.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c80…e19bbacked Over37c27.03$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0322450%112 W · 112 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa087…d888backed Under58c25.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159753.6%52 W · 45 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over65c24.41$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.668,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Under64c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15a7…5ed1backed Over67c18.27$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0324263.6%154 W · 88 L+12.5wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.