MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb32d7eced7f26535fe81a3ca72f5354e75518b578e9b8f84bd6f657f2b754b08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9bc…d6d1backed Under | 7c | 5,965$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 55c | 3,273$1,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470.76 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…f636backed Under | 64c | 2,500$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.99 | 233 | 57.9%135 W · 98 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 49c | 2,354$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204.34 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 2,140$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.33 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Under | 63c | 1,587$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.81 | 204 | 55.9%114 W · 90 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 10c | 850$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked Under | 64c | 720$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.95 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e50…0ea8backed Under | 4c | 700$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 57 | 7%4 W · 53 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +83%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…712dbacked Under | 58c | 600$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 37c | 355.96$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.41 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 39c | 282.07$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.06 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 63c | 248.61$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.13 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Over | 36c | 231$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.84 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 35c | 230.77$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 36c | 227.62$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.24 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed Under | 71c | 203.58$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.54 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 54c | 196.42$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.07 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 36c | 184.34$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.42 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…361dbacked Under | 64c | 160$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.4 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked Under | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad8…5004backed Under | 64c | 142.56$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.24 | 188 | 55.3%104 W · 84 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed Under | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…fd79backed Under | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 56.2%104 W · 81 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3e…d412backed Under | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 175 | 57.1%100 W · 75 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 40c | 70.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.77 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked Under | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 222 | 57.7%128 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Over | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…2c65backed Under | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 219 | 54.8%120 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 36c | 47.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…fd16backed Under | 65c | 46.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c54…bebbbacked Under | 46c | 44.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…631cbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 46c | 38.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeccc…f0f8backed Under | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Over | 37c | 29.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Over | 37c | 27.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Over | 37c | 27.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…d888backed Under | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 65c | 24.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Under | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…5ed1backed Over | 67c | 18.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 242 | 63.6%154 W · 88 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas RangersSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Texas RangersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.