MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 14.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3b1efb4f52447a9ac47ff7657621f59ebbf941f9776161cdd1c1cb26db37326
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Over | 63c | 50,000$31,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,499.96 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 37c | 26,085$9,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,651.42 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…6532backed Under | 37c | 7,158$2,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,648.52 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 37c | 6,732$2,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,490.73 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0e…952fbacked Under | 37c | 5,161$1,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,909.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x615d…bd5bbacked Under | 37c | 2,045$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.72 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc11…4b4abacked Under | 4c | 1,499$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.96 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +126.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Under | 37c | 1,015$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.55 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…2287backed Over | 58c | 390.53$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.02 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 42c | 390.53$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.02 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Under | 37c | 224.16$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.94 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5f…6ee5backed Under | 37c | 204.52$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.67 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Under | 37c | 201.92$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.71 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Under | 37c | 140$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 135 | 45.2%61 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 37c | 137.84$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 37c | 137.84$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Under | 37c | 121.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 37c | 91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Under | 37c | 76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Under | 37c | 71.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Under | 37c | 68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 267 | 51.7%138 W · 129 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…db20backed Under | 37c | 66.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Under | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 160 | 57.5%92 W · 68 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 37c | 28.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 14.5this page
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 12.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 13.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 15.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 17.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.