MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe106dad8bf75a81b0efba4cb8662251be0cd9081dd9469346c783ea1ccedc1ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof San Diego Padres, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked San Diego Padres | 57c | 25,488$14,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,603.76 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres | 67c | 18,007$12,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,144.54 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 10,407$4,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,990.61 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 1,795$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.17 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 1,499$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.84 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 1,108$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.89 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 871.16$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.55 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 719.16$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.41 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 649$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.17 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed San Diego Padres | 33c | 609.82$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.6 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00c4…e285backed Toronto Blue Jays | 68c | 278.94$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.06 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 47c | 249.03$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.26 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 218.2$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.99 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 198.99$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.62 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Diego Padres | 32c | 198.94$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.66 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf511…bfe4backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 195.91$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed San Diego Padres | 33c | 192.49$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.52 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…9634backed Toronto Blue Jays | 54c | 152.82$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.42 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…7a09backed San Diego Padres | 54c | 144.26$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.12 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 136.44$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.39 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 118.95$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.29 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 110.38$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.21 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Diego Padres | 30c | 91.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 91.26$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.79 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 89.05$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 82$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 49c | 80.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed San Diego Padres | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaf…1f76backed San Diego Padres | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 68.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed San Diego Padres | 39c | 68.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed San Diego Padres | 72c | 65.81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 62.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 56.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked San Diego Padres | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…2d27backed San Diego Padres | 33c | 48.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed San Diego Padres | 34c | 47.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed San Diego Padres | 41c | 42.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 40.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Toronto Blue Jays | 73c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked San Diego Padres | 63c | 37.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 267 | 53.9%144 W · 123 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…e7f0backed San Diego Padres | 39c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 36.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked San Diego Padres | 36c | 34.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed San Diego Padres | 33c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed San Diego Padres | 76c | 29.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed San Diego Padres | 52c | 29.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 27.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked San Diego Padres | 63c | 15.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 12.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 13.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 14.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 15.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 17.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.