MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26a2394337d7ce18b89aefcbc3a96655e7d92f97b7cca0926553da074faa6f87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,752
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,752 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 51c | 4,120$2,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100.99 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 49c | 4,117$2,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,098.75 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 55c | 2,950$1,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,622.64 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 43c | 1,345$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.37 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 45c | 1,077$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.96 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 58c | 1,077$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.71 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 55c | 934.08$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.74 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 45c | 854.99$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.25 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 45c | 833$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.15 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 712.48$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.87 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 255.89$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.59 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 45c | 223.72$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.05 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…a02dbacked Over | 46c | 202.91$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 45c | 201.82$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 45c | 180$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Over | 44c | 158$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.48 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 48c | 136.03$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.74 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 59c | 117.88$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 53c | 98.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.46 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Under | 52c | 89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…7a09backed Under | 53c | 88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.59 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9437…235ebacked Under | 55c | 86.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 45c | 73.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Under | 55c | 63.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 32c | 58.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 45c | 54.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3255…ffb9backed Over | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 56c | 48.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x731b…6124backed Under | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -38%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 45c | 42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 54c | 38.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Under | 54c | 38.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Under | 53c | 37.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Under | 53c | 25.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Over | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Over | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 100 | 66%66 W · 34 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 12.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 13.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 14.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 15.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 17.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.