Premier League · resolved market
Will Wolves vs. Crystal Palace end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3b2350c7c35142ddc6b01c3b8714da5ca3a9190b65c8421be0573954dc110c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Yes | 49c | 14,767$7,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,520.44 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked No | 61c | 6,221$3,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,794.66 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa5…ff32backed No | 28c | 4,883$1,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,367.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +1,419.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 68c | 2,855$1,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,952.69 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5d…69fbbacked Yes | 32c | 1,563$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb228…2734backed Yes | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.15 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 35c | 933.67$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.12 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Yes | 58c | 533.33$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 168 | 51.2%86 W · 82 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a6…61ffbacked Yes | 68c | 525.04$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe807…7c26backed Yes | 54c | 462.96$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13a6…ee95backed No | 33c | 440.61$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.54 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked No | 71c | 399.96$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.97 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc9…fc51backed Yes | 29c | 363.39$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.14 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Yes | 29c | 342.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.66 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Yes | 43c | 143$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.4 | 113 | 53.1%60 W · 53 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 57c | 100.78$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.18 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 172 | 34.3%59 W · 113 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 32c | 92.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.8 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 70c | 91.57$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.1 | 171 | 43.3%74 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…1ff9backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d7…8260backed No | 67c | 75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed No | 68c | 64.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…bb64backed No | 39c | 62.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd7…925ebacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce7…fd4abacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac7…8deebacked Yes | 62c | 40.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…9a61backed Yes | 70c | 32.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea4…e097backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x501a…d46dbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -5.0wins | -0.26per pick | 53cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a1…ad7bbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f95…8e86backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 72cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Wolves vs. Crystal Palace end in a draw?this page
- Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-11-02?No won
- Will Wolves win on 2024-11-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.