Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3b4a5702a28551ea8082a0c0fa8c26a30d49806faa8b4d36d653343b37fad22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 6c | 2,156$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.33 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8f…1b4fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,855$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 67 | 1.5%1 W · 66 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 27c | 566.79$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.77 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 12c | 336.47$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 21c | 213.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 59c | 200$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.78 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 8c | 194.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 193$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.29 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 72c | 145.75$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 34c | 132.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked No | 57c | 129.14$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.89 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 124.75$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…5c3abacked Yes | 28c | 105.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 42c | 102.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 100.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 28c | 88.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 23c | 86.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 74.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 57.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 34c | 55.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 24c | 50.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 46.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b88…a191backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 71c | 32.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0366…ec39backed No | 58c | 32.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 75c | 24.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 72c | 22.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 71c | 22.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked No | 71c | 20.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…9eefbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 7?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on July 7?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 7?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 7?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.