Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdccb36a9ba24ae3fc395a8cc07ff4f8a9877beabb64ae36c0d9a66e0d8465afd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,448
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 41c | 2,520$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.73 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 57c | 1,146$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.97 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 54c | 847.75$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.91 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 42c | 475.18$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.18 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed No | 73c | 395.14$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.7 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 64c | 381.59$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.5 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 36c | 377.36$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.15 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 43c | 371.32$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.67 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 41c | 279$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.21 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1276…ec87backed No | 61c | 250$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.65 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 42c | 219$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.25 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 45c | 178.09$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.94 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 127$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.98 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 55c | 120.39$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.77 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 120$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.53 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 103.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…cc13backed Yes | 43c | 101.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 59c | 98.62$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.53 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 56c | 80.39$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30f…a161backed Yes | 39c | 79.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a9…2bb1backed Yes | 43c | 70.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 63c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 63c | 67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 56c | 54.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 61c | 54.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 43c | 52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 44c | 51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 47.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 49c | 44.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 28c | 41.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked No | 72c | 40.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 39.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 66c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd594…9d1bbacked Yes | 46c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0366…ec39backed Yes | 51c | 31.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85ba…e33abacked Yes | 41c | 29.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 63c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9f…a0b1backed No | 59c | 25.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…9efcbacked Yes | 45c | 23.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7a…8465backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e3…6863backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 7?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on July 7?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 7?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 7?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.