NHL · resolved market
KHL: Sibir Novosibirsk vs. Lada Togliatti
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3c3034ac8c6892da3d8b94dcbbc5a3b1ed18ee9dc6e2886a8273e6448e8d5c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sibir Novosibirskof Sibir Novosibirsk, Lada Togliatti
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29b1…f737backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 71c | 1,739$1,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.78 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Lada Togliatti | 29c | 1,246$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.32 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 63c | 600$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 202 | 45%91 W · 111 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Lada Togliatti | 32c | 427.76$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.6 | 179 | 40.2%72 W · 107 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Lada Togliatti | 41c | 379.06$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.62 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3de…3842backed Lada Togliatti | 51c | 197.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Lada Togliatti | 29c | 146.55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Lada Togliatti | 16c | 110.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 524 | 51%267 W · 257 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Lada Togliatti | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c3e5backed Lada Togliatti | 29c | 99.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 75c | 86$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 49c | 72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 315 | 40.3%127 W · 188 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07a6…5638backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 91 | 68.1%62 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8610…eba9backed Lada Togliatti | 32c | 56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…0605backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 72c | 55.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Lada Togliatti | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d960backed Lada Togliatti | 41c | 46.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 366 | 62%227 W · 139 L | +39.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b60…6693backed Lada Togliatti | 32c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd92…1be3backed Lada Togliatti | 32c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…58c1backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 68c | 39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Lada Togliatti | 28c | 37.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe579…08d0backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa70a…7107backed Lada Togliatti | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43e6…ac47backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 68c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 225 | 43.1%97 W · 128 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d99…934cbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfef4…409ebacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Lada Togliatti | 41c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed89…e68ebacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf4…e21bbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 68c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69c0…6c89backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 68c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…4833backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 68c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39e9…7d6abacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 72c | 22.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x959a…2325backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc989…679ebacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcece…d26ebacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1faa…c1f6backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985b…6b7fbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +148.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fcb…5ee0backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 68c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…08fbbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 68c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc8…df60backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 72c | 16.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa295…98bcbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 72c | 16.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad6…82d0backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebf…beaabacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe826…cfe1backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.